Decision-order theory: A decision taxonomy: Working paper series--02-18

Proper identification of the decision or problem is critical to finding a course of action or solution. Identifying the problem or decision ex-ante and then searching for the solution that can be explained ex-post is the goal. If the contraire view is adopted where the solution methodology is defined ex-ante, and the effort is focused on searching for a problem or decision, real-world problems will never be solved and real-world decisions will be seriously flawed. The decision-order taxonomy developed in this paper, provides the required identification system. By performing a content analysis on the seminal literature in the natural sciences, social sciences, applied sciences and the arts, the semantic descriptors that are commonly used by researchers to partition their domains are identified. The result is an implicit taxonomy that reveals the organization and language required to describe and differentiate decision problems into one of three classes or orders. These three classes are labeled first, second, and third-order. The three orders correspond roughly to the theoretical distinction between decision-making under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty, respectively

Seeking the dimensions of decision-making: An exploratory study: Working paper series--02-17

In a majority of business research field studies the concepts being measured are abstract and complex, and the tools available are relatively crude and primitive. The prior art provides indications, suggestions and allusions to the concept of a multi-dimensional decision making model, but there is no general theory empirically identifying these dimensions. Using the semantic differential technique, a decision-dimension profiling construct is developed. Support is sought for the theoretical a-priori hypotheses that decisions have multiple dimensions and these dimensions can be measured. The results indicate that a decision problem can be characterized by measuring eight semantic scales to proxy three dimensions; Risk, Scale, and Complexity. Similarly, eight additional semantic scales are identified to proxy the four dimensions; Logic, Speed, Scope, and Tactics; that a decision-maker uses to approach a decision problem

Alignment: The duality of decision problems: Working paper series--02-16

This paper makes a strong case that there exists an underlying pattern to decision problems. To exploit this pattern, the decision order framework is developed to guide researchers and decision makers toward appropriate solution methodologies. This process is called alignment and is based on the duality of decision problems. The process is validated using a number of examples from quantitative research, decision-making, economic theory, entrepreneurship, theory of the firm, education, and eCommerce. Extensions to the decision orders framework are presented to offer insight into the evolution and decomposition of complex decision problems

IQSOFT Ltd Hungary a case for change: Working paper series--02-15

This case is set in the emerging markets of Central Europe, shortly after the fall of communism. IQSOFT Ltd Hungary is a small information technology firm spun off from the government operated Computer Technology Coordination Institute, an institute that controlled all information technology activity in Hungary during the communist rule. With very little capital, IQSOFT Ltd found itself competing in the same market with some of the largest, most powerful, multinational companies. During a series of transitions, IQSOFT Ltd demonstrates tremendous resilience and adaptability to the constantly changing environment. This case takes the reader inside IQSOFT during a period of relative stability. Although stable, the constant struggle to find new sources of revenue has left IQSOFT with an extensive, diverse, and unfocused product/service portfolio. Since IQSOFT Ltd.'s inception, the internal organization had changed, Hungary had changed, and the information systems market had changed. The directors of IQSOFT Ltd realized that their organization had evolved to meet the survival needs of the company, but the question was: would the organization meet its future needs? Balint Domolki (managing director), Julia Sipka (commercial director), and Tamas Langer (technical director), met to discuss whether the evolution of IQSOFT Ltd. would be sustain the company's future success

Profiling decision makers exploring the dimensions of decision making: Working paper series--02-29

The prior art explores decision problems descriptively, providing a description of the factors important to decision making. This study captures the underlying structure of these decision problems quantitatively, offering a methodology for objectively quantifying the decision maker's perception of different factors. A homogeneous group of twenty-one senior vice presidents from a medium-sized service business is subjected to a business war game intervention. This intervention provides a rehearsal simulation environment for the teams of participants to make business decisions while running the branch office of a service company. Using a one-group pretest-posttest design, a semantic differential instrument explores the dimensions of decision-making and captures a testable profile of decision makers. Cluster and factor analysis are used in the initial investigation of the data to create a model that is confirmed using structural equation modeling. A structural equation modeling analysis supports the validity of two concept models, the decision problem characterization and the decision maker approach, by confirming their existence as members of a feasible set. Theoretically, this study establishes a methodological foundation upon which a reliable predictive theory can be built

The impact of business war games: Quantifying training effectiveness: Working paper series--02-20

Does participation in a business simulation exercise change people's perspectives on decision problems? Does it change their approach to solving those problems? These are fundamental questions positively confirmed by this research. Using the semantic differential technique and a one-group pretest-posttest design, tests are conducted to assess changes in characterization and approaches to business decision problems. The pre-experimental study is conducted on a homogeneous group of twenty-one senior vice presidents from a medium-sized service business. The intervention is a custom business war game that provides a competitive rehearsal simulation environment. A matched pair t-test confirms ten of twelve key hypotheses that the desired change has occurred in participants; while the Wilcoxon signed-rank test confirms nine. The methodology developed in this paper, to measure the extent to which a business simulation exercise is able to induce specific changes, provides the first quantifiable verification of the value offered by business simulation exercises

Orderness: An extension of decision problem alignment: Working paper series--02-19

Decision alignment is the essence of business management. Fundamentally, it involves the optimal matching of decision problem characteristic elements with decision problem approach elements. Most conceptualizations of alignment correctly focus on the identification of a misalignment; however, these conceptualizations fail to offer the theory needed to guide the decision-maker in ways to achieve alignment. The decision order alignment visualization described in this paper provides the theory for identifying misalignment coupled with an actionable tool for focusing change. The suggested methodology recognizes that regions along a hypothetical continuum best represent a decision problem's taxonomic classification. This taxonomic classification sorts decision problems into one of three classes or orders, where the "orderness" is defined as an indicator of how much the problem resembles the base class. Having identified the decision order(s) that is (are) misaligned, an action plan can be developed that targets change directly on the characteristic and/or the approach elements

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

The Impact of Business War Games: Quantifying Training Effectiveness

Does participation in a business simulation exercise change people’s perspectives on decision problems? Does it change their approach to solving those problems? These are fundamental questions positively confirmed by this research. Using the semantic differential technique and a one-group pretest-posttest design, tests are conducted to assess changes in characterization and approaches to business decision problems. A matched pair t-test confirms significant change in ten of twelve key hypotheses; while the Wilcoxon signed-rank test confirms nine. The measurement methodology developed and results presented provide quantifiable justification for the use of business simulation exercises to induce targeted change in a decision maker’s decision problem perception

Orderness: A New Definition of Alignment

Decision alignment is the essential to management and critical to participant performance in business simulation exercises. Fundamentally, alignment involves the optimal matching of decision problem characteristics with a known approach strategy. Most conceptualizations of alignment correctly focus on the identification of misalignment; however, these conceptualizations fail to offer the theory needed to guide the decision-maker toward alignment. The decision order alignment visualization described in this article provides the theory for identifying misalignment coupled with an actionable tool for guiding alignment strategies. A visualization tool is introduced that can be incorporated into business simulation exercises offering both developmental and evaluative feedback opportunities on decision effectiveness